Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Thursday, December 9, 2010
As this financial crisis lingers on, the gap between the new plutocracy and the new Dumpies is becoming a pressing political issue. During the 1960s, the hippies dropped acid and dropped out. Today, as Dumpies, the largest demographic group (a.k.a. baby boomers, approximately 75 million strong…of which I am one) may wake up and drop back in. If they do, who knows where the political process, driven by their hippie values, will go? This is why the second decade of the 21st century will be more important than the first.
Financial education is an important objective for this next decade. We cannot allow the gap to grow bigger. We must have financial education in our schools. Money will not close the gap -- only financial education will. If we do nothing, who knows what creature will emerge as the mascot of the new decade?
To see the future, look to the past. Throughout history, political despots have emerged during times of economic crisis. Some famous characters are Mao, Stalin, Napoleon, and Milosevic.
In 1933, four years after the 1929 crash, two figures arose from the Depression. One was Adolf Hitler. The other was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Many people believe Barack Obama is modeling himself after FDR. Which leads to the question: Who will play Hitler?
Financial education is an important objective for this next decade. We cannot allow the gap to grow bigger. We must have financial education in our schools. Money will not close the gap -- only financial education will. If we do nothing, who knows what creature will emerge as the mascot of the new decade?
To see the future, look to the past. Throughout history, political despots have emerged during times of economic crisis. Some famous characters are Mao, Stalin, Napoleon, and Milosevic.
In 1933, four years after the 1929 crash, two figures arose from the Depression. One was Adolf Hitler. The other was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Many people believe Barack Obama is modeling himself after FDR. Which leads to the question: Who will play Hitler?
At the same time, the expanding bubble of debt created a surreal environment of monetary nirvana. You could buy what you wanted, max out your credit cards, and pay off the cards with a home equity loan, as Santa’s sleigh ride continued. Who cared if the bottom 50% were being left behind? Who cared if the top 10% earned 49% of earning’s growth? Who cared if 10% of the population got richer while 90% were left behind? We had toys, we were hip, we had designer bling from China that made us look rich, and we could buy the house of our dreams for no money down. What could be better?
We live in an age of unprecedented openness. As stated earlier, technology has made information and communication free or almost free. There is more opportunity than ever before…yet that opportunity is largely theoretical: In America social mobility will reverse as many in the middle class become Dumpies.
Between 1997 and 2001 the gap was as follows:
1. The top 1% earned 24% of earnings growth.
2. The top 10% earned 49% of earnings growth.
3. The bottom 50% earned 13% of growth.
Until 2008 none of this seemed to matter. The wonderful inventions, such as iphones, ipods, Twitter, Google, and Facebook kept us entertained like kids at Disneyland
Between 1997 and 2001 the gap was as follows:
1. The top 1% earned 24% of earnings growth.
2. The top 10% earned 49% of earnings growth.
3. The bottom 50% earned 13% of growth.
Until 2008 none of this seemed to matter. The wonderful inventions, such as iphones, ipods, Twitter, Google, and Facebook kept us entertained like kids at Disneyland
The second group you will hear more about is the new, young, global mega-rich. They are internationally minded plutocrats who are the beneficiaries of globalization and the technical revolution. They are being pushed along by the fall of communism, the spread of economic globalization, and the impact of the internet as technology makes information and communication free or almost free. Most are 40 or younger today.
This rise of the new global mega-rich is happening as established institutions are falling. The fall runs the gamut from the music business and traditional media to the Detroit automakers who find themselves obsolete, outmaneuvered, and out-priced by entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley, Mumbai, Shanghai, and even Siberia.
We live in an era of unprecedented opportunity for the smartest, most persistent, and creative among us. Whole new businesses will emerge around breakthrough products as revolutionary technologies accelerate capitalism’s creative destruction of slower industries.
In this second decade, you will see the middle class of the West being hollowed out, creating the Dumpies of the world…modern dinosaurs of the evolutionary process. Both globalization and technology will have a punishing impact on those without intellect, luck, or chutzpah to profit from the changes. Machines, technology, and cheap labor in low-wage countries have pushed down wages in the West, aggravating the financial crisis for the obsolete and ill-informed.
This rise of the new global mega-rich is happening as established institutions are falling. The fall runs the gamut from the music business and traditional media to the Detroit automakers who find themselves obsolete, outmaneuvered, and out-priced by entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley, Mumbai, Shanghai, and even Siberia.
We live in an era of unprecedented opportunity for the smartest, most persistent, and creative among us. Whole new businesses will emerge around breakthrough products as revolutionary technologies accelerate capitalism’s creative destruction of slower industries.
In this second decade, you will see the middle class of the West being hollowed out, creating the Dumpies of the world…modern dinosaurs of the evolutionary process. Both globalization and technology will have a punishing impact on those without intellect, luck, or chutzpah to profit from the changes. Machines, technology, and cheap labor in low-wage countries have pushed down wages in the West, aggravating the financial crisis for the obsolete and ill-informed.
All in all, the first decade was an exciting start to the 21st century. What will the second decade bring? What new character will emerge if hippies, disco-ducks, techies, and philanderers are yesterday’s news?
I believe there will be two newsworthy groups to emerge between 2010 and 2020. One big group will be the Dumpies, so named because life leaves them down in the dumps. Many in this group are old hippies who flourished during the ‘60s and forgot to grow up. Not all Dumpies were hippies. Many Dumpies became Dumpies simply because, like dinosaurs, they failed to notice the weather changing. They simply followed in their parents’ footsteps, faithfully believing that all they had to do was go to school, get a job, buy a house, save money, retire on a company pension, collect Social Security, and live happily ever after at the country club. The formula worked for their parents -- the WWII generation – so why shouldn’t it work for them?
The problem is, the rules of money changed. In 1971 President Nixon took the world off the gold standard and in 1974 the predecessor to the 401(k) plan emerged. Suddenly savers were losers as inflation took off, debtors were winners, and people turned to gambling with real estate and in the stock market as the guarantee of a retirement check for life disappeared.
In the coming decade, I believe we will be hearing more and more stories of Dumpies -- well educated, hard-working, successful, prosperous people who will find themselves out of time, out of money, and dependent upon government or family support in their golden years.
I believe there will be two newsworthy groups to emerge between 2010 and 2020. One big group will be the Dumpies, so named because life leaves them down in the dumps. Many in this group are old hippies who flourished during the ‘60s and forgot to grow up. Not all Dumpies were hippies. Many Dumpies became Dumpies simply because, like dinosaurs, they failed to notice the weather changing. They simply followed in their parents’ footsteps, faithfully believing that all they had to do was go to school, get a job, buy a house, save money, retire on a company pension, collect Social Security, and live happily ever after at the country club. The formula worked for their parents -- the WWII generation – so why shouldn’t it work for them?
The problem is, the rules of money changed. In 1971 President Nixon took the world off the gold standard and in 1974 the predecessor to the 401(k) plan emerged. Suddenly savers were losers as inflation took off, debtors were winners, and people turned to gambling with real estate and in the stock market as the guarantee of a retirement check for life disappeared.
In the coming decade, I believe we will be hearing more and more stories of Dumpies -- well educated, hard-working, successful, prosperous people who will find themselves out of time, out of money, and dependent upon government or family support in their golden years.
The first decade of the 21st century is over. Many people find themselves off to a bad start. The new century began with the Y2K scare -- the threat of computers shutting down around the world. Then 9/11 came, followed by two long and expensive wars. The Nasdaq bubble and crash were followed by the real estate bubble then subprime crash, which led to the unprecedented printing of trillions of dollars in an attempt to prevent a global depression. The result is a lingering financial crisis that has expanded the gap between the haves and have-nots.
Most decades have their characters. In the 1960s, we had the hippies. By the 1970s the peace movement evolved into John Travolta and disco. In the 1980s, capitalists took center stage. Techies dominated the 1990s and suddenly geeks were cool.
The question is, what character will emerge to represent the first decade of the 21st century? Will it be the religious terrorists flying into tall buildings or the financial terrorists stealing our wealth from inside tall buildings? Will the first decade be known for Ponzi scheme notables such as Bernie Madoff and Allen Stanford… or Social Security and mutual funds? Could it be known for odd couples such as Barack and Hillary or John and Sarah? Or will the first decade be known as the era of celebrity philandering with confessions from the likes of Tiger Woods, Elliot Spitzer, and John Edwards? (All three should get together to co-author a book entitled “Family First”.)
Most decades have their characters. In the 1960s, we had the hippies. By the 1970s the peace movement evolved into John Travolta and disco. In the 1980s, capitalists took center stage. Techies dominated the 1990s and suddenly geeks were cool.
The question is, what character will emerge to represent the first decade of the 21st century? Will it be the religious terrorists flying into tall buildings or the financial terrorists stealing our wealth from inside tall buildings? Will the first decade be known for Ponzi scheme notables such as Bernie Madoff and Allen Stanford… or Social Security and mutual funds? Could it be known for odd couples such as Barack and Hillary or John and Sarah? Or will the first decade be known as the era of celebrity philandering with confessions from the likes of Tiger Woods, Elliot Spitzer, and John Edwards? (All three should get together to co-author a book entitled “Family First”.)
In 1971 President Richard Nixon took the world off the gold standard. Here we are again on the edge of a new depression. After the last depression, America emerged as the richest creditor nation in the world. Because our homeland wasn't bombed like the European countries, we had factories exporting products to a world rebuilding from the war.
Today leaders like Ben Bernanke want to rewrite history. They want us to believe that spending and debt are the solution. They want us to buy their version of history and continue to get deeper and deeper into debt. They want us to trust that printing more money will pull us out of our great recession.
True history speaks a different story. It speaks of collapse when a nation or empire overextends itself. The true fear should not be a depression or a double-dip recession. It should be an economic collapse. You can only tip the system so many times before it falls completely apart.
Today America is the biggest debtor nation in the world. Our factories have moved overseas. Now we're net importers paying our bills and fighting two wars with counterfeit money as our leaders use the same accounting rules WorldCom and Enron used -- and as you know, those companies no longer exist.
Today leaders like Ben Bernanke want to rewrite history. They want us to believe that spending and debt are the solution. They want us to buy their version of history and continue to get deeper and deeper into debt. They want us to trust that printing more money will pull us out of our great recession.
True history speaks a different story. It speaks of collapse when a nation or empire overextends itself. The true fear should not be a depression or a double-dip recession. It should be an economic collapse. You can only tip the system so many times before it falls completely apart.
Today America is the biggest debtor nation in the world. Our factories have moved overseas. Now we're net importers paying our bills and fighting two wars with counterfeit money as our leaders use the same accounting rules WorldCom and Enron used -- and as you know, those companies no longer exist.
So the question becomes, if the world's economic systems are so fragile, and if collapses are common in a world of competing systems, why are we not talking more about the possibility of collapse? Obviously our leaders don't want us talking or thinking about that. And they try hard to frame the discussion so we don't.
Most people would agree (including many historians) that the best way to anticipate the future is to study the past. But what if our version of history is wrong? What if our history is distorted to sell an agenda? After all, the word "history" is made up of two words: his and story.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Princeton University scholar of the Great Depression, often says that the depression could have been averted if only the government had printed more money. That's his story, but that's not what history says.
After the crash of 1929, FDR was elected in 1933. He immediately took the U.S. off the gold standard through the Emergency Banking Act and introduced his New Deal. This allowed him to print more money and rack up huge amounts of national debt. At first it seemed that FDR's plan was working.
Yet in 1938 there was a "depression within the depression." Economic output collapsed and the unemployment rate rose from 14.3% to 19%, in the face of a year-over-year decline from the peak of 24.9% in 1933.
History proves Bernanke's claim (that FDR didn't print enough money) to be wrong. This is what Roosevelt's Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Morgenthau, wrote in his diary in May 1939: "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and now if I am wrong, somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosper. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And enormous debt to boot."
World War II broke out in 1939 and many people credit that war with saving the economy. While the war did boost the recovery, it was the Bretton Woods Agreement, signed in 1944, that put the world back on the gold standard, which stabilized the global economy.
Most people would agree (including many historians) that the best way to anticipate the future is to study the past. But what if our version of history is wrong? What if our history is distorted to sell an agenda? After all, the word "history" is made up of two words: his and story.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Princeton University scholar of the Great Depression, often says that the depression could have been averted if only the government had printed more money. That's his story, but that's not what history says.
After the crash of 1929, FDR was elected in 1933. He immediately took the U.S. off the gold standard through the Emergency Banking Act and introduced his New Deal. This allowed him to print more money and rack up huge amounts of national debt. At first it seemed that FDR's plan was working.
Yet in 1938 there was a "depression within the depression." Economic output collapsed and the unemployment rate rose from 14.3% to 19%, in the face of a year-over-year decline from the peak of 24.9% in 1933.
History proves Bernanke's claim (that FDR didn't print enough money) to be wrong. This is what Roosevelt's Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Morgenthau, wrote in his diary in May 1939: "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and now if I am wrong, somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosper. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And enormous debt to boot."
World War II broke out in 1939 and many people credit that war with saving the economy. While the war did boost the recovery, it was the Bretton Woods Agreement, signed in 1944, that put the world back on the gold standard, which stabilized the global economy.
The world is made up of systems, systems often competing against one another. For instance, BP's latest gusher in the Gulf brought home the fragile relationship between the world's eco and economic systems. The environmentalists say capitalism is killing our oceans, air, land, and forests. Capitalists argue that they provide food, fuel, and building materials for a growing world.
Because the world is made up of systems in conflict, it's not only uncommon (but, rather, normal) to see systems collapse.
History is full of economic collapses from the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany to, most recently, Iceland. Economic collapses most often precede the collapse of empires.
In families, if the breadwinners lose their jobs, the family economy often collapses.
We should not be surprised when collapses happen. Rather, we should be surprised they don't happen more often.
As you may have already guessed, a minor collapse can create a ripple effect that may cause a domino effect of bigger crashes. This is why Greece was such a hot issue. If Greece failed, it might have taken the mighty German and French economies down. This would have caused an economic tsunami and collapsed the world economy.
Jared Diamond's Collapse is a great book for history buffs of collapses. Diamond traces the causes that led to the fall of civilizations such as the Maya, Easter Island, the Anasazi Indian tribe of Arizona and Utah, the environmental and economic collapse going on in Montana today, and more. The book reads like a murder mystery. It's easy to read, disturbing, frightening -- and hard to put down. Looking into the history of collapses, we see many parallels to today.
And, it seems to me, we know this intuitively. Our pop culture is becoming obsessed with apocalyptic stories. There are more and more movies about what would happen to our world after a collapse. The latest are 2012, The Road, and The Book of Eli. There is a new TV series titled The Colony that is created on the same theme. Even TV commercials are picking up on the post-apocalyptic world. Bridgestone tires runs a commercial about a rogue gang of dark and dangerous looking thugs stopping a car on a steep mountain road demanding, "Your Bridgestones or your life." The driver throws out a gorgeous, sexy, long-legged young woman, turns around and drives off with the thugs screaming, "Your life, not your wife!"
Because the world is made up of systems in conflict, it's not only uncommon (but, rather, normal) to see systems collapse.
History is full of economic collapses from the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany to, most recently, Iceland. Economic collapses most often precede the collapse of empires.
In families, if the breadwinners lose their jobs, the family economy often collapses.
We should not be surprised when collapses happen. Rather, we should be surprised they don't happen more often.
As you may have already guessed, a minor collapse can create a ripple effect that may cause a domino effect of bigger crashes. This is why Greece was such a hot issue. If Greece failed, it might have taken the mighty German and French economies down. This would have caused an economic tsunami and collapsed the world economy.
Jared Diamond's Collapse is a great book for history buffs of collapses. Diamond traces the causes that led to the fall of civilizations such as the Maya, Easter Island, the Anasazi Indian tribe of Arizona and Utah, the environmental and economic collapse going on in Montana today, and more. The book reads like a murder mystery. It's easy to read, disturbing, frightening -- and hard to put down. Looking into the history of collapses, we see many parallels to today.
And, it seems to me, we know this intuitively. Our pop culture is becoming obsessed with apocalyptic stories. There are more and more movies about what would happen to our world after a collapse. The latest are 2012, The Road, and The Book of Eli. There is a new TV series titled The Colony that is created on the same theme. Even TV commercials are picking up on the post-apocalyptic world. Bridgestone tires runs a commercial about a rogue gang of dark and dangerous looking thugs stopping a car on a steep mountain road demanding, "Your Bridgestones or your life." The driver throws out a gorgeous, sexy, long-legged young woman, turns around and drives off with the thugs screaming, "Your life, not your wife!"
"Is the crisis over?"
"Is the economy recovering?"
These are questions I'm often asked. People who ask such questions are praying for a "V-shaped" recovery, hoping that the worst is over and that we're on our way to economic recovery.
Some experts say that we're in a "U-shaped" recovery, meaning the recovery will take longer, maybe another two to three years. Others fear a "W-shaped recovery," a double dip, which could result in another crash before full recovery. Some experts are calling for a zombie recovery similar to the Japanese economy's 20-year stagnation.
There's also a growing chorus of experts who are warning of our greatest fear, a depression either in the form of hyperinflation like the German Weimar Republic experienced in the 1920s, or a deflationary depression like the Great Depression.
A depression would be devastating, but could there be something worse than a depression?
The answer is, "Yes." There could be an economic collapse.
"Is the economy recovering?"
These are questions I'm often asked. People who ask such questions are praying for a "V-shaped" recovery, hoping that the worst is over and that we're on our way to economic recovery.
Some experts say that we're in a "U-shaped" recovery, meaning the recovery will take longer, maybe another two to three years. Others fear a "W-shaped recovery," a double dip, which could result in another crash before full recovery. Some experts are calling for a zombie recovery similar to the Japanese economy's 20-year stagnation.
There's also a growing chorus of experts who are warning of our greatest fear, a depression either in the form of hyperinflation like the German Weimar Republic experienced in the 1920s, or a deflationary depression like the Great Depression.
A depression would be devastating, but could there be something worse than a depression?
The answer is, "Yes." There could be an economic collapse.
The S&P 500 remains 21 percent below its 2007 highs. Still, many analysts foresee higher stock prices as the economy improves further.
"We expect household net worth to keep its momentum," said Gregory Daco, senior economist at IHS Global Insight. "Financial gains should offset real estate losses resulting from lower housing prices and very weak sales."
The stagnant values of homes and other real estate holdings are limiting the improvement in Americans' wealth, the Fed's report showed. The value of those holdings fell 3.7 percent last quarter. That followed a scant 0.5 percent rise in the prior three months.
The outlook for housing remains dim. Homes are most people's biggest asset. But their values are still depressed in many markets. Most economists expect home prices nationally to decline 5 percent to 10 percent by the middle of next year. In some markets, declines will likely be steeper
"We expect household net worth to keep its momentum," said Gregory Daco, senior economist at IHS Global Insight. "Financial gains should offset real estate losses resulting from lower housing prices and very weak sales."
The stagnant values of homes and other real estate holdings are limiting the improvement in Americans' wealth, the Fed's report showed. The value of those holdings fell 3.7 percent last quarter. That followed a scant 0.5 percent rise in the prior three months.
The outlook for housing remains dim. Homes are most people's biggest asset. But their values are still depressed in many markets. Most economists expect home prices nationally to decline 5 percent to 10 percent by the middle of next year. In some markets, declines will likely be steeper
Most economists think consumer spending, led by the wealthy, will rise further in the months ahead. But they still don't think most shoppers, especially low- and middle- income Americans, will spend lavishly. Shrunken home equity, scant wage gains and high unemployment will keep spending in check.
More Americans are building up savings and paring debt. That's helping repair their personal finances. But it doesn't help fuel the nation's economic growth.
Consumers saved 5.8 percent of their disposable income last quarter. That was down slightly from 6.2 percent in the April-June quarter. It's still much higher than the 1-percent-plus rates just before the financial crisis.
People are steadily trimming debt. The Fed said overall household debt dipped to $13.4 trillion in the July-September period. That's a 3.5 percent drop from a peak in early 2008.
Households, on average, are carrying around $43,321 in debt, ranging from mortgages and credit cards to auto loans and home equity lines.
Debt now accounts for 122 percent of Americans' disposable income -- down from a peak of 135 percent in late 2007
More Americans are building up savings and paring debt. That's helping repair their personal finances. But it doesn't help fuel the nation's economic growth.
Consumers saved 5.8 percent of their disposable income last quarter. That was down slightly from 6.2 percent in the April-June quarter. It's still much higher than the 1-percent-plus rates just before the financial crisis.
People are steadily trimming debt. The Fed said overall household debt dipped to $13.4 trillion in the July-September period. That's a 3.5 percent drop from a peak in early 2008.
Households, on average, are carrying around $43,321 in debt, ranging from mortgages and credit cards to auto loans and home equity lines.
Debt now accounts for 122 percent of Americans' disposable income -- down from a peak of 135 percent in late 2007
In the global race for jobs and economic prosperity, the United States is No. 2. And it is likely to remain there for some time. That's the glum conclusion of most Americans surveyed in the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll. Henry Luce famously labeled the 20th century the "American Century." This survey suggests that most Americans now doubt that this new century will bear that name.
Is There a Future for 'Made in America'?
In the poll, only one in five Americans said that the U.S. economy is the world's strongest--nearly half picked China instead. Looking forward, Americans are somewhat more optimistic about regaining primacy, but still only about one in three expect the U.S. economy to be the world's strongest in 20 years. Nearly three-fifths of those surveyed said that increasing competition from lower-paid workers around the world will keep living standards for average Americans from growing as fast as they did in the past. Ruben Owen, a retired Boeing engineer in Seattle who responded to the survey, spoke for many when he said, "We're still in a reasonably good place … but it's going to get harder because other places are growing stronger."
Is There a Future for 'Made in America'?
In the poll, only one in five Americans said that the U.S. economy is the world's strongest--nearly half picked China instead. Looking forward, Americans are somewhat more optimistic about regaining primacy, but still only about one in three expect the U.S. economy to be the world's strongest in 20 years. Nearly three-fifths of those surveyed said that increasing competition from lower-paid workers around the world will keep living standards for average Americans from growing as fast as they did in the past. Ruben Owen, a retired Boeing engineer in Seattle who responded to the survey, spoke for many when he said, "We're still in a reasonably good place … but it's going to get harder because other places are growing stronger."
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Being an Entrepreneur!
There Are Forces Outside Your Control
Last, but not least, you have to understand that you cannot control everything in the universe. Markets collapse, the government intervenes, tragedy strikes, and other unforeseen circumstances. You don't let this make you quit. Its like a roadblock on the way to a concert, sports game, or party you want to get to. You may have to sit in traffic or take an alternate route, but as long as you are determined to get there, you will end up at the event. In the words of the late Randy Pausch "Brick walls are there to show you how bad you want something." Once again, this isn't a deterrent to becoming an entrepreneur, but just a reality check to make sure you're prepared. Many companies die because people just give up . Hopefully this article does some small bit in helping preventing this. Life as an entrepreneur is hard, but if you really love what you're doing and have the determination, you WILL do it.
Last, but not least, you have to understand that you cannot control everything in the universe. Markets collapse, the government intervenes, tragedy strikes, and other unforeseen circumstances. You don't let this make you quit. Its like a roadblock on the way to a concert, sports game, or party you want to get to. You may have to sit in traffic or take an alternate route, but as long as you are determined to get there, you will end up at the event. In the words of the late Randy Pausch "Brick walls are there to show you how bad you want something." Once again, this isn't a deterrent to becoming an entrepreneur, but just a reality check to make sure you're prepared. Many companies die because people just give up . Hopefully this article does some small bit in helping preventing this. Life as an entrepreneur is hard, but if you really love what you're doing and have the determination, you WILL do it.
Being an Entrepreneur!
Building A Team Is Hard
Finding co-founders by themselves is very hard just by itself. Finding a group of individuals smarter than yourself across a broad range of skill takes up way more time than you would ever think. In the early days, you may be super excited about your company, but it's often hard to get a large group of others equally excited. They may have their own ideas they want to work on, be comfortable with a cushy salary, or generally just not interested in what you're doing. Just because you're excited does not mean others will be excited. If you're lucky enough, you will hit a certain period of growth explosion that requires you to hire rapidly and be a great judge of character on the fly. This is a dangerous period for a startup as the company is still small enough that the wrong DNA can make things take a turn for the worse, but you cannot be as granular with hiring these employees as your first 10.
Finding co-founders by themselves is very hard just by itself. Finding a group of individuals smarter than yourself across a broad range of skill takes up way more time than you would ever think. In the early days, you may be super excited about your company, but it's often hard to get a large group of others equally excited. They may have their own ideas they want to work on, be comfortable with a cushy salary, or generally just not interested in what you're doing. Just because you're excited does not mean others will be excited. If you're lucky enough, you will hit a certain period of growth explosion that requires you to hire rapidly and be a great judge of character on the fly. This is a dangerous period for a startup as the company is still small enough that the wrong DNA can make things take a turn for the worse, but you cannot be as granular with hiring these employees as your first 10.
Being an Entrepreneur!
There Is No Such Thing As An Overnight Success
In some cases you may be able to find out that your idea just won't work or that you are one of the lucky few that get acquired early on. Other than that, be prepared to work on your startup for many many years. The press often makes it seem as if success happened overnight, but the entrepreneurs themselves spent a lot of time with the company over the course of many years. Startups aren't a 5k, but an all out iron man competition.
In some cases you may be able to find out that your idea just won't work or that you are one of the lucky few that get acquired early on. Other than that, be prepared to work on your startup for many many years. The press often makes it seem as if success happened overnight, but the entrepreneurs themselves spent a lot of time with the company over the course of many years. Startups aren't a 5k, but an all out iron man competition.
Being an Entrepreneur!
You Can't Do It All Yourself
Some entrepreneurs have a superhero complex that they feel they can do everything themselves or with just one co-founder. They think that its possible to scale the company with just two to three people. This just results in being overworked and unfocused. Know when to let go of your pride and bring in people that are often smarter than you are. By bringing in others to work with you, there's also an ability for each team member to be laser focused on what their best at.
Some entrepreneurs have a superhero complex that they feel they can do everything themselves or with just one co-founder. They think that its possible to scale the company with just two to three people. This just results in being overworked and unfocused. Know when to let go of your pride and bring in people that are often smarter than you are. By bringing in others to work with you, there's also an ability for each team member to be laser focused on what their best at.
Being an Entrepreneur!
Customers Will Frustrate You
Having customers is a great thing, but dealing with support is a whole other ball game. If you're in the consumer world, expect to deal with customers that don't notice the obvious even with your fancy pants UI/UX in place. You will also get an influx of feedback that is often contradictory. One customer wants it in red, another wants it in blue, and a third wants it combined to become purple. The key to dealing with customers is to respond to everyone, but have a strong rule of authority. If you succumb to customers frustrating you and do everything you say, you quickly end up in a far worse position.
Having customers is a great thing, but dealing with support is a whole other ball game. If you're in the consumer world, expect to deal with customers that don't notice the obvious even with your fancy pants UI/UX in place. You will also get an influx of feedback that is often contradictory. One customer wants it in red, another wants it in blue, and a third wants it combined to become purple. The key to dealing with customers is to respond to everyone, but have a strong rule of authority. If you succumb to customers frustrating you and do everything you say, you quickly end up in a far worse position.
Being an Entrepreneur!
There Is No Silver Bullet
There shouldn't be and usually never is a single deal that can make your company. Certain deals or customers can take you to another rung on the ladder, but there are still many more rungs to climb along the way. You shouldn't look at a deal as the end game to the startup, but a means to a specific milestone that is in the near future. A deal can be taken away far faster than it can be given to you. By training yourself to diversify your risk and the milestones that advance your company, you control the destiny of your company, NOT one single partner. The success of a startup is the compilation of luck infused with many little wins along the way.
There shouldn't be and usually never is a single deal that can make your company. Certain deals or customers can take you to another rung on the ladder, but there are still many more rungs to climb along the way. You shouldn't look at a deal as the end game to the startup, but a means to a specific milestone that is in the near future. A deal can be taken away far faster than it can be given to you. By training yourself to diversify your risk and the milestones that advance your company, you control the destiny of your company, NOT one single partner. The success of a startup is the compilation of luck infused with many little wins along the way.
Being an Entrepreneur!
Titles Mean Nothing. You Will Be a Janitor
Hey there Mr. CEO, Chairman, and Co-Founder! As a co-founder of a < 10 person company with a product that doesn't have customers, titles really don't mean much. Everyone will be doing a little bit of everything, including cleaning the toilets. Don't try to mask the grind of being an entrepreneur with some superficial title. In reality, you should love and embrace the nitty gritty of those first days. Business cards are nice to hand out, but they really shouldn't say more than co-founder or something else. Maybe someone inside the company plays more of the CEO role (speaking and being the face of the company), but that doesn't really matter in the early days. You have to be humble and you have to be willing to do whatever it takes. You don't have a staff of 50 to throw the task on to either. If you don't do it, it won't get done. Sure you could also try to optimize for efficiency, but that's almost counter productive as the early days of a startup requiring doing so much, that it's hard to just cut something out.
Hey there Mr. CEO, Chairman, and Co-Founder! As a co-founder of a < 10 person company with a product that doesn't have customers, titles really don't mean much. Everyone will be doing a little bit of everything, including cleaning the toilets. Don't try to mask the grind of being an entrepreneur with some superficial title. In reality, you should love and embrace the nitty gritty of those first days. Business cards are nice to hand out, but they really shouldn't say more than co-founder or something else. Maybe someone inside the company plays more of the CEO role (speaking and being the face of the company), but that doesn't really matter in the early days. You have to be humble and you have to be willing to do whatever it takes. You don't have a staff of 50 to throw the task on to either. If you don't do it, it won't get done. Sure you could also try to optimize for efficiency, but that's almost counter productive as the early days of a startup requiring doing so much, that it's hard to just cut something out.
Being an Entrepreneur!
Everything Takes Twice As Long...If It Even Happens
Multiply everything by two, including the things inside of your control. When things take longer, you sometimes think that you're doing it wrong or no one really cares. In reality, everyone else has multiple deals and responsibilities on the table. By factoring this into the expectations of your startup, it makes a lot easier to prepare for launching products, closing deals, and more. Also, be persistent and get the other party what they need as soon as possible. On the flip-side, most deals just never work out. It may be an acquisition all the way down to a simple business development deal. There are always many moving parts and excitement that can just fade. That's okay though. If you're building your company upon one deal or a silver bullet (more on that below), then you need to re-evaluate things. Don't be depressed when a deal falls through as that is just the nature of the beast.
Multiply everything by two, including the things inside of your control. When things take longer, you sometimes think that you're doing it wrong or no one really cares. In reality, everyone else has multiple deals and responsibilities on the table. By factoring this into the expectations of your startup, it makes a lot easier to prepare for launching products, closing deals, and more. Also, be persistent and get the other party what they need as soon as possible. On the flip-side, most deals just never work out. It may be an acquisition all the way down to a simple business development deal. There are always many moving parts and excitement that can just fade. That's okay though. If you're building your company upon one deal or a silver bullet (more on that below), then you need to re-evaluate things. Don't be depressed when a deal falls through as that is just the nature of the beast.
Being an Entrepreneur!
You Will Make Less Than Normal Wages For A While
If you got into entrepreneurship first and foremost for the money, then you are in the wrong business. Sure you may one day sell your company, but that day is probably far far away. Even then, there are usually earn out clauses, vesting still in tact, and a whole lot more. Even if you raise a good chunk of cash, your money is better spent on hiring the best talent than paying yourself a higher wage. There's nothing wrong wanting to make money, but in the beginning it's going to be rough. You will make less than most of your friends, especially the ones doing the "normal" paths of things like finance. It's a litmus test in its finest form though. If you truly love what you're doing, the capacity to have a large bank account takes a back burner to completing your mission. Sure you need some basic creature comforts, but luxury items almost seem silly as you will not have the time to truly enjoy them.
If you got into entrepreneurship first and foremost for the money, then you are in the wrong business. Sure you may one day sell your company, but that day is probably far far away. Even then, there are usually earn out clauses, vesting still in tact, and a whole lot more. Even if you raise a good chunk of cash, your money is better spent on hiring the best talent than paying yourself a higher wage. There's nothing wrong wanting to make money, but in the beginning it's going to be rough. You will make less than most of your friends, especially the ones doing the "normal" paths of things like finance. It's a litmus test in its finest form though. If you truly love what you're doing, the capacity to have a large bank account takes a back burner to completing your mission. Sure you need some basic creature comforts, but luxury items almost seem silly as you will not have the time to truly enjoy them.
Being an Entrepreneur!
Your Friends And Family Won't Understand What You Do
"You're an entrepreneur, so that means you're un-employed?" or "Oh that's nice." are some of the many reactions you will get from close friends, family members, and others over the course of starting your company. Even if you achieve milestones that are worthy of praise (customers, fundraising, new traffic levels, press,etc.) and denote success in the entrepreneurial world, people still won't understand what you do. Unless you build one of the few consumer success stories that come around every few years, things probably won't change here. The b2b space is even more difficult to explain as most people aren't your customer, especially if it's a niche workflow. This is okay and sometimes even a relief to know there is more outside in the world than just techies and entrepreneurs. Just because they don't understand it, doesn't mean you're doing something wrong or unacceptable. I doubt Larry Ellison can have most of his family understand Oracle (that database company that stores information), but things turned out pretty well for him at the end of the day.
"You're an entrepreneur, so that means you're un-employed?" or "Oh that's nice." are some of the many reactions you will get from close friends, family members, and others over the course of starting your company. Even if you achieve milestones that are worthy of praise (customers, fundraising, new traffic levels, press,etc.) and denote success in the entrepreneurial world, people still won't understand what you do. Unless you build one of the few consumer success stories that come around every few years, things probably won't change here. The b2b space is even more difficult to explain as most people aren't your customer, especially if it's a niche workflow. This is okay and sometimes even a relief to know there is more outside in the world than just techies and entrepreneurs. Just because they don't understand it, doesn't mean you're doing something wrong or unacceptable. I doubt Larry Ellison can have most of his family understand Oracle (that database company that stores information), but things turned out pretty well for him at the end of the day.
Being an Entrepreneur!
Your First Iteration of an Idea Will Be Wrong
The first iteration or implementation of your idea will often be wrong. That's not because you're not smart, not doing the right things, or some other reason to come down hard on yourself. As it turns out, this is actually a good sign. No idea survives its first interactions with its customers and requires you to synthesize feedback to adapt to the customer. You could be prideful, not listen to what your customers are telling you, and keep things the way they were. In the end, that just leaves you with no customers and a product you may not even use yourself. It's okay if things change up a bit when it comes to your idea and its implementation.
The first iteration or implementation of your idea will often be wrong. That's not because you're not smart, not doing the right things, or some other reason to come down hard on yourself. As it turns out, this is actually a good sign. No idea survives its first interactions with its customers and requires you to synthesize feedback to adapt to the customer. You could be prideful, not listen to what your customers are telling you, and keep things the way they were. In the end, that just leaves you with no customers and a product you may not even use yourself. It's okay if things change up a bit when it comes to your idea and its implementation.
Being an Entrepreneur!
There's always talk about the end game in the form of an acquisition, funding announcement, or eventual flame out. Hollywood has even made a movie about the founding of Facebook that glamorizes startup life instead of showing what it really is: a day in day out marathon of work with very little glamor. We rarely hear about the harsh realities that entrepreneurs face and the journey that this entails. This isn't meant to be a downbeat and negative article, but actually quite the opposite. By knowing the harsh realities that lie ahead, you can be prepared when they come about so you can solider on. Here are some of the harsh realities that come with the territory of being an entrepreneur.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
You control your own actions!
If you understand that you have control of your actions and reactions, you not only get better results, but you also have a much better journey through life.Isn’t it better to go through life with the knowledge and belief that you are not a victim of circumstance but are in control of your choices?
Study successful people!
If You Want to Be Rich, Study Success and Nothing Else From Chinese martial arts to Renaissance paintings, students have always learned by emulating the masters. This is your only shortcut to success. Model the successes of people you admire and learn from their mistakes. These people are the ones who have done it all and can give you invaluable advice on how to earn, keep, and use money. It’s a price worth paying, no matter how outlandish the cost may seem at the time.
Practice makes Perfect!
When it comes to doing anything well, it takes practice: not just any practice, but perfect practice. Vince Lombardi, the famous coach of one of the most successful American football teams in history, made a remarkable statement that stunned reporters when he was asked about his game tactics. He said it would not matter if the opposing team had a copy of their play book ( a book of their set moves) before the game, because of his team had rehearsed well and executed perfectly they were unstoppable, no matter what the other team did to defend them. This is a great lesson in life, and this is where the real riches lie – in practice and execution. When it comes to developing winning habits, perfect practice is essential. That means it is more important to get a winning habit absolutely right once, than to do it half-right a hundred times. If you do it half-right, you’re practicing getting it half-wrong, too.
Your thoughts are you!
Your own thoughts are the most powerful influence in your life. Your thoughts are you, so the more negative and self-defeating thoughts you have, the less successful you’ll be. It’s easy to say “Be a positive thinker”, but for many people it’s not natural or easy to do. Willpower alone won’t help you do this.Your mind always has to contain something – that’s just the way it is. You can’t empty your mind of negative thoughts. You need to replace them with positive messages.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Stay Motivated!
In our lives, some of us get dealt a great hand of cards at the start, others a bad one. But as in any game, it’s not always the best hand that wins, it’s the best player who does. Personal improvement is about becoming the best player possible. It’s about growing, it’s about fulfillment, it’s about self-respect and confidence. This means different things to different people. What’s important is that you always strive to give your best, and be the best person you can be, regardless of what your hand is at start. Because when you adopt this attitude, you’ll find that the hand you’re dealt becomes less important, compared with the hand that will end up winning the game.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Branding 2.0 & Social Media
Check out this SlideShare Presentation:
Branding 2.0 & Social Media
View more presentations from Sampad Swain.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
::: THE COMMODITIES MARKET IS THRIVING! :::
Christie’s will present its autumn sale of jewelry on November 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre. The sale will offer collectors a selection of more than 300 gemstones with a combined value of more than $55 million.
Leading the sale is The Perfect Pink, a rare 14.23-carat Fancy Intense Pink diamond offered with an estimate of $14 million to $19 million.
Christie’s will present its autumn sale of jewelry on November 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre. The sale will offer collectors a selection of more than 300 gemstones with a combined value of more than $55 million.
Leading the sale is The Perfect Pink, a rare 14.23-carat Fancy Intense Pink diamond offered with an estimate of $14 million to $19 million.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
::: The company I have been working on so intensely is now available :::
As you may be well aware, your online identity "brand" is crucial
in creating the first and sometimes only impression people will
see.This first impression of you as a "brand" and lasting
reputation is why Premiere Branding Group, Inc. was created.
We have found that even though many of you are constantly putting
out information on the internet, through groups, blogs, tweets,
wikis and all social media networks, many do not optimize or know
how to properly manage your online "brand" or utilize the web
efficiently.
Premiere Branding Group, Inc. (PBG) is poised to be a leader in
personal and business branding, brand recognition, brand
promotion and reputation management. PBG will focus on creating,
launching and maintaining your professional, personal and/or
business brand.
This will help you minimize your online time and maximize a
professionally created personal and/or business online image.
Premiere Branding Group, Inc. will manage all branding
identities, image and reputations. PBG will generate top
positioning in all pertinent-to-your-field, groups and sites.
Follow the link below to allow PBG to begin your online branding
identity process... To be properly "branded".
www.premierebrandinggroup.com
in creating the first and sometimes only impression people will
see.This first impression of you as a "brand" and lasting
reputation is why Premiere Branding Group, Inc. was created.
We have found that even though many of you are constantly putting
out information on the internet, through groups, blogs, tweets,
wikis and all social media networks, many do not optimize or know
how to properly manage your online "brand" or utilize the web
efficiently.
Premiere Branding Group, Inc. (PBG) is poised to be a leader in
personal and business branding, brand recognition, brand
promotion and reputation management. PBG will focus on creating,
launching and maintaining your professional, personal and/or
business brand.
This will help you minimize your online time and maximize a
professionally created personal and/or business online image.
Premiere Branding Group, Inc. will manage all branding
identities, image and reputations. PBG will generate top
positioning in all pertinent-to-your-field, groups and sites.
Follow the link below to allow PBG to begin your online branding
identity process... To be properly "branded".
www.premierebrandinggroup.com
Thursday, October 14, 2010
::: Are you properly positioned on the web? :::
Web sites are indexed in search engines based on many factors. Two important ones are the content of the Web site and the actual URL. So, say your name is "Brandon Reiser" and you own www.brandonreiser.com—which happens to be the platform for your personal brand. Someone who decides to Google "Brandon Reiser" will naturally stumble across your Web site in the top positions.
Web sites are indexed in search engines based on many factors. Two important ones are the content of the Web site and the actual URL. So, say your name is "Brandon Reiser" and you own www.brandonreiser.com—which happens to be the platform for your personal brand. Someone who decides to Google "Brandon Reiser" will naturally stumble across your Web site in the top positions.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
I have just come across a brand new business idea. I am so excited about this that I can hardly contain myself. Remember before "yourcompany.com" took off? I do. I was part of it all. Catered lunches and dinners, bonuses, and a great environment. Well this is the next one...The Social Media explosion is about to happen. There is something coming around the bend. Think Personal Branding...
Follow me to get info as I release it to the public soon.
Follow me to get info as I release it to the public soon.
As the founder and creator of Marbella Entertainment (dealing with films and music), a new business opportunity has come across my desk.
I have to tell you that this is the best thing that I have been shown for a long time. I am so excited for all of us, that I have decided to take it under my command and launch it. It will streamline the way artists, labels, management and public promote, brand and market their wares. You will be utterly amazed at what this will accomplish.
Follow me to get more information as I release it!
I have to tell you that this is the best thing that I have been shown for a long time. I am so excited for all of us, that I have decided to take it under my command and launch it. It will streamline the way artists, labels, management and public promote, brand and market their wares. You will be utterly amazed at what this will accomplish.
Follow me to get more information as I release it!
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Marbella will announce new hedge fund.
Marbella will soon announce a partnership with a major hedge fund to finance $5million to $15million budget range films.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Wow what a full day. I intended to only come into the office for a short while on this Sunday. It turned into a long day of reading scripts. Lucky for me that is one of my favorite ways to spend the day. I hope you all enjoyed hearing a little about our upcoming films. I know they will be just as much fun to watch as they were for me to read. So to all, a good night.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Hollywood Movie Financing getting stronger
Scott Spalding a veteran film financier announced that there is more interest in film financing from Wall Street. Money channels have been opening up for independent and lower budget films. There is allot of interest in Hollywood film productions in the financial investment world. More to follow...
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